Are Democrats ready for the mid-term elections?

The Hump Day Hot Topics!

Beware, the mid-term elections loom

Should Democrats worry at all that only months removed from President Joe Biden's decisive victory over former President Donald Trump, one that was followed by a storming of the Capitol Complex by Trump supporters that left several people dead and millions of dollars in damage; all during a period in which many Republican political leaders continue to scoff at the seriousness of the Coronavirus while downplaying the need to get vaccinated, that the Republican Party could see significant gains in Congress in 2022?

Yes, they should worry…

In recent history, 2010 to be exact, barely a year after President Barack Obama's stimulus relief proposals helped to keep the United States from a second Great Depression, the entity that would become known as the TEA Party, an acronym meaning "Taxed Enough Already," arose and raised the issue that those nation saving stimuli, plus the Affordable Care Act known as Obamacare, were too expensive. Astonishingly, the very Republicans who under former President George W. Bush had helped lead the U.S. to the edge of fiscal ruin, rebranded themselves as the arbiters of fiscal rectitude and in the process, performed quite well in the 2010 mid-terms. 

The same could hold true in 2022 if Democrats do not become extremely proactive right now!

While politics is oft akin to sports in that our gut instincts are to cheer for the home team, the danger in that is that we sometimes fail to see potentially troubling flaws through our rose colored glasses. That, coupled with the simple truth conveyed by the old Andre Agassi slogan, "image is everything," presents several concerns this Fall as we head towards the new year. 

First, as I have written before, President Biden was absolutely correct that the war in Afghanistan needed to end. Absolutely! Where he erred, fellow Democrats, is in the extremely flawed implementation of the exit strategy, one that the Defense and State Departments had months to plan for this year. I know, I know, some will roll their eyes at this and say "Hobbs, the end of all wars are messy," and I concede that there is a measure of truth to that in the modern era. Still, the one thing that drew many voters to Biden in the first place is that he offered a calm and thoughtful alternative to the shoot from the hip, combative, Tweet and say the first thing that comes to mind Donald Trump. Or, so we thought, as over the past two weeks, Biden has been temperamental, combative, and eager to say the first thing that comes to his mind about why the withdrawal did not fail when he should have simply said, "we could have done this better."

For the Democrats who will counter, "well Hobbs, Trump never apologized for anything, either," I simply respond by asking are we children, what with the "he did it, too," justification? I don't know how some of you were raised, but back in the day, my saying that one of my friends did it, too, sure as heck never kept me from a whoopin' when I errred as a child! The same logic drives me in my own life and my political analysis; when you mess up, own it, apologize, and don't mess up in that way again!

The second issue hanging like the proverbial Sword of Damocles over the heads of Mr. Biden and congressional Democrats is the proposed $3.5 trillion dollar reconciliation (budget) bill, and the $1 trillion dollar infrastructure bill that has yet to be passed in the House. Fence sitting Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia penned an editorial in the Wall Street Journal recently that hinted that he will not support the reconciliation bill, while suggesting that the president consider a "strategic pause" by holding off on the same instead of trying to push it through with the infrastructure bill, lest both go down in defeat. 

The key, folks, is the realization that the August jobs report, while not bad, was not necessarily good for the Biden administration. This was due, in large part, to the rise in Covid cases and the paucity of service industry jobs, particularly in the restaurant industry. As many families hunker back down and cook at home or order takeout, more and more “Help Wanted” signs are hanging outside of restaurants across the country.

The reconcilation bill is billed as one that could ease the financial burdens of Americans and by so doing, promote greater spending as we head into the holidays. But should this measure fail, and should an economic downturn ensue, such will provide all of the sound for GOP fury heading into 2022. Which, again, would be a repeat of 2010 in that the very vaccine averse Republicans from 2020 will be waiting to say how they—and not the Democrats—are better suited to create jobs, put money in pockets, and chickens in pots across America. 

If 2022 comes, can 2024 be far behind?

In recent weeks, the Trump watch has begun in earnest among many media outlets waiting to see whether the former president will seek to return to politics and run for the presidency again in 2024. Like him or loathe him, the truth is that the media, even the very concerns like CNN and the NY Times that Trump despised, love Trump because he provides ratings boosts each time he walks to a lectern to speak.

While it has not occurred in our lifetimes, there is precedent for a vanquished president seeking a return to the White House. In 1912, former President Teddy Roosevelt headed the Progressive "Bull Moose" Party ticket while running against his successor, William H. Taft, and the eventual winner, Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

In 1892, the 22nd POTUS, Democrat Grover Cleveland, ran against the man who beat him in 1888 to become the 23rd, Republican Benjamin Harrison, and won a second, non-consecutive term—and the distinction of being the 22nd and 24th POTUS. 

Will Trump become the second man in American history to win non-consecutive terms? At this juncture it seems unlikely for numerous reasons, but specifically the following: First, as mentioned above, the memories of the January 6th MAGA riots at the Capitol remain an extremely bad look for Trump. Not among his hard core supporters who deny what they saw with their own eyes, but because of the white swing voters that he would have to win who were not enamored with his rhetoric during his first term, his early handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the winter of 2020, and his refusal to concede his loss or take responsibility for the MAGA riots.

Still, the same logic from my first section above holds true here, which is that many of these white swing voters can have short memories if their finances are coming up short. 

A second issue that Trump 2.0 would face is the changing demographic of the American electorate. While I and other pundits have written extensively about the racial makeup of the modern Democratic and Republican Parties, a sub-issue in this demographic analysis is the role that education, or the lack thereof, is playing among the modern electorate. 

Back in 1960, when Democrat John F. Kennedy defeated Republican Richard Nixon, Kennedy won white voters without a college degree but curiously, the Harvard legacy lost white college graduates by a two-to-one margin. Last year, Democrat Joe Biden reversed this number, handily winning white cokkege grads but losing whites without a degree by a two-to-one margin to Donald Trump. 

Trump, rather surprisingly based on some of his rhetoric about “Mexican criminals” and “African s-hole countries,” also fared quite well with Latino and Black voters without college degrees, too, a phenomenon that creates the possibility that if blue collar and service industry jobs that do not require a college education lag or go unfilled, that Trump could draw those voters to his second candidacy like a moth to a flame in 2024. 

Stay tuned...

Fifty Cent's classless post about the late Michael K. Williams

While most of the entertainment world issued praises in remembrance of actor Michael K. Williams, 54, Fifty Cent, the entertainment figure, posted a tasteless plug to his new show, Power III: Raising Kanan—while poking fun at Williams's death.

In a since deleted Instagram post, Fifty wrote: “Damn, if you didn’t see Raising Kanan, check it out that fentanyl is no joke, killing the clientele. RIP Micheal K. Williams.”

While autopsy reports have yet to be released, authorities have reported their belief that Williams died from a drug overdose based on paraphernalia found in his home.

To be clear, the pair have had problems with each other ever since Williams checked Fifty several years ago for spreading a rumor that his friend, James "Jimmy Henchman" Rosemont, was assaulted while imprisoned in New York. Fifty clapped back at the time by derisively reminding Williams that he, like his iconic character, Omar Little, was a "punk"--a slur denoting that the fictional Omar was gay.  

Fifty has been known to be "petty" in his fights with other celebrities, most notably his running challenges to boxer Floyd Mayweather to "read aloud" due to the fact that Mayweather reportedly is illiterate. But to me, Fifty's words in the wake of Williams's death are below the belt and for that reason, I will not watch another episode of Power III in protest of its creator's lack of empathy for the dearly departed.

Thank you for subscribing to the Hobbservation Point Newsletter. Have a great Wednesday!