Trump trounces potential primary rivals in CPAC Straw Poll

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Former President Donald Trump won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) presidential preference straw poll yesterday with 62 percent of the vote, trouncing the competition and outdistancing his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who earned 20 percent of all votes.

Now, it is important to note that DeSantis has not yet entered the presidential preference race and did not attend CPAC, nor did former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.), and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), each among a group of up to 24 Republicans mulling a run for the White House. 

The GOP Primary may feature all or most of the above figures; how many can you name? Drop a note in the comments or via email…

Former South Carolina Gov. Nimrata "Nikki Haley" Randawha, the latest high profile Republican to join the ‘24 race, did attend CPAC—but only earned three percent of the vote in the straw poll. 

Republican Nimrata “Nikki Haley” Randawha was loudly jeered by pro-Trump loyalists during her CPAC speech on Friday…

While some media outlets have dismissed this year's CPAC as nothing more than a Trump groupie fest, the Hobbservation Point considers the result telling because CPAC traditionally gauges what's on the minds of rank-and-file primary voters who ultimately will select the next Republican presidential nominee. Lest we forget that Trump is attempting to do what no other former president has done since Grover Cleveland, which is to lose a race while in the White House—only to win a second non-consecutive term the next cycle.

Grover Cleveland (left) and Donald Trump

To be clear, Donald Trump is still VERY popular among the type of Republicans who don't spend their free time watching C-Span congressional sessions or reading treatises about conservative policy, but are enamored with his celebrity and his facility with blaming Blacks, Muslims, Mexicans, and the LGBTQ community for most of America's ills. 

Conversely, Ron DeSantis has become the flavor of the month for those Republicans who do watch congressional hearings and read treatises on public policy because they view the Yale and Harvard Law graduate as being far more intelligent than Trump—even though both men support most of the same core conservative fiscal, foreign affairs, and culture war "anti-Woke" perspectives. 

Like Dr. Frankenstein's monster, then President Donald Trump turned an obscure U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis into the Florida Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2018 by endorsing him over perceived front-runner Adam Putnam. Now, DeSantis poses the biggest threat to Trump's presidential aspirations…

Interestingly enough, Trump reversed himself during his Saturday CPAC speech by expressing support for mail-in voting and early voting hours; remember, it was the former president who spent much of his single term falsely (and repeatedly) claiming that mail-in and early voting hours were fraught with fraud—a factor that led many Republicans to avoid using such mechanisms during both the 2020 and 2022 mid-term election all because Trump told them to avoid such legal voting measures. While Trump didn't say "I was wrong about early voting fraud," he did declare yesterday that Republicans must "swamp the left with mail-in votes, early votes and Election Day votes." 

Trump also assured CPAC attendees that he would remain in the race even if indicted on one or more cases that are being investigated in Georgia (voting fraud), D.C. (January 6th MAGA riots), and New York (tax fraud), while falsely declaring to thunderous applause that “(Democrats) have weaponized justice in our country."

Even in the midst of multiple criminal investigations, while Trump remains the clear favorite to become the Republican nominee no matter if his general election opponent is President Joe Biden or some other Democrat, he will still struggle to match Grover Cleveland by becoming the second non-consecutive POTUS in American history.

Why?

Simply stated, Trump, once again, will struggle to win enough votes in key Electoral College states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and perhaps even Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia due to his polarizing positions on race, religion, and sexual orientation—positions that are off-putting to the millions of independent voters who supported him during the 2016 race against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, but abandoned him in droves during his race against Biden in 2020. 

Republican Sen. Tim Scott (R) poses a unique problem for Trump in that he is a viable conservative alternative for Republicans who would prefer a Black white supremacy denying face to assuage their own white supremacist ideations…

While we are still several months away from the first 2024 Republican primary debates, I submit that the coming race is really about poll positioning for 2028, when an octogenarian Trump will be highly unlikely to run again, and Republicans will be looking more closely at younger figures like DeSantis, Nimrata "Nikki Haley" Randawha, and Tim Scott to carry the banner into the 2030s and beyond.

Stay tuned...