Prediction: Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump!

Get the Point!

With only 16 days left until Election Day '24 I am going to go out on a limb and make a prediction: Kamala Harris will become the next President of the United States!

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While I believe that the results will be known by the morning after the election, I am fully prepared to watch the Trump campaign litigate each and every fake issue they can muster for a month or longer until the Electoral College is certified—and the planning for a new administration can begin in earnest for every American Democrat, Republican, or Independent with common sense. 

Somewhat regrettably, one of the hallmarks of the U.S. Constitution is that common sense is neither a requirement to vote nor to hold elected office because if either was so, there would be far fewer voters—and the last two painfully  unintelligent Republican presidents, Donald Trump and George W. Bush—never would have made it to the Oval Office!

But in the case of the once and would be recent Republican president, Mr. Trump, he DID become president and barring a colossal collapse in turnout among Democrats, anti-Trump Republicans, and Independents, he very well could become president again next January 20th. 

But again, I am fairly confident that such will not occur for a few reasons that I will discuss below, but before I do, I will remind that I jokingly began calling myself "Hobbstradamus," with a nod to the Renaissance era French soothsayer Nostradamus, not long after the 2016 election when I predicted in mid-October of that year that Trump would win—to the laughter/chagrin of my readers and followers at the time who were fully convinced that Hillary Clinton would EASILY dispatch her crude, lewd, and rude opponent. 

My prediction for Trump was four years after I had correctly picked incumbent President Barack Obama to defeat Republican challenger Mitt Romney in an election cycle in which many national pundits predicted that the Tea Party momentum of 2010 would carry over into Republicans winning the White House in 2012. Those pundits were wrong—and Ol' Hobbs was right—but the stage was set in '12 for a Republican insurgency in '16, although I was still intellectually shocked back then that it would be Trump, the political dilettante, as the head insurgent. 

My shock, however, did not betray my eyes, meaning, when I saw that Trump's rallies in reliably Blue parts of Florida like Tallahassee and along the I-4 corridor were pulling vast numbers of participants, and Trump-Pence signs were legion along highways and backroads that were typically littered with Democratic signage, my gut told me that Trump, a novice, was about to pull off an upset over Clinton, a vastly more polished and experienced politician. 

In 2020, after four years of literal nothingness from Trump as far as pushing his alleged economic agenda for middle America, coupled with the  coronavirus pandemic that resulted in mass deaths and mass economic panic as prices for goods inflated, Trump was soundly defeated by Joe Biden in both the popular and Electoral College votes that Fall. But instead of accepting his loss after 61 of his 62 legal challenges proved fruitless in courts across the country, Trump's illegal attempts to overturn the lawful election results not only etched his name in infamy--but it led to several still pending felony cases that very well could land him in prison when all is said and done. 

Thus, Trump's post 2020 deplorable acts are the first reason I believe that Kamala Harris will win in 18 days, while the second—and arguably the most important reason—is that no matter how much he tries to backtrack towards the finish line, the electorate knows fully well that Trump's three Supreme Court selections, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett, are THE reasons that abortion rights were overturned in the Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs decision! That decision led to MAGA Republicans being punished at the polls during the '22 mid-term election season, and its legacy is one that I strongly sense will prove decisive among abortion supporting moderate white women who chose Trump over Clinton in '16, but circled back to Biden in '20. 

In essence, my prediction means that Trump surely will capture his loyal MAGA minion vote as expected next month, but that he has done absolutely nothing to siphon off significant numbers of swing voters who are not in the cult—and see an unstable 78-year old man-child who is becoming increasingly more bitter, incoherent, and when clothed in his right mind, more Fascist by the day!

While right wing news sources called it a disaster, Kamala Harris easily handled Fox host Brett Baier’s hostile questions earlier this week…

To be clear, I am not so blinded by the Blue that I cannot recognize that not every Trump supporter is a Trump cultist endowed with all of the racial, religious, gender, and homophobic biases thereunto appertaining. In fact, I personally know people who actually believe that Trump is the stronger candidate on the economy than Ms. Harris, and that he is better situated to lower food and gas prices through his policies (although Trump, let alone these non-cult Trump optimists, are hard pressed to answer "how" he would actually accomplish this based upon his history of palling around with corporate honchos at the expense of the rank and file workers/consumers). Still, I believe that there are more voters that are wary of Trump 2.0—even despite their own concerns about their wallets and putting food in the table—than there are MAGA minions and wishful thinking Trump supporters, thus, my belief that Harris will secure the win!

I caution one last time, however, that the road ahead will NOT be easy as there are enough deplorables out there to make January 6th look like a walk in the park by comparison. And even when those predictable attempted coups are put down by law enforcement and/or the military in the two months between Election Day and Inauguration Day, President-elect Harris will surely inspire enmity from just about every Republican in Congress as they seek to cause her administration to fail right out of the gates; such are the realities of our modern hyper-partisan political world!

And it's important to note that while a Harris victory will signal the end of Trump as a political figure (considering he would be 82 years old and possibly in prison or on federal probation by 2028), such would not necessarily mean the end of Trumpism as a right wing political force.  As I often mention, Trump is merely the celebrity froth on the political cauldron, as the boil deep within stems from a significant portion of the American electorate who fear the reality that our nation grows browner, queerer, more women centric, and less focused on White Anglo-Saxon Protestant/Catholic dogma each and every day. Those realities, when coupled with the continuing losses of middle class jobs not requiring higher levels of education, will continue to fuel the demonizing of immigrants and demographic groups who are not hardly responsible for the demise of the American middle and working classes—but who become easy scapegoats for Republicans like Ron Desantis, J.D. Vance, and Kari Lake as they seek to become the heirs to Trump's empire.  

Lest we forget...